Beyond 2030, Which Healthcare Technologies Won't Make It? by David L. Priede, MIS, PhD

This article forecasts the decline of ten specific healthcare technologies by 2030 and explains why digitization, AI, and connectivity advancements are making them obsolete.

WHY THIS MATTERS

Understanding the trajectory of healthcare technology isn't just for futurists; it's vital for anyone involved in the sector—clinicians, administrators, patients, and innovators. Recognizing which tools are becoming relics helps us anticipate workflow shifts, allocate resources and prepare for a future where healthcare is more innovative, faster, and more integrated. This is a strategic glimpse into the near future.

Five Key Takeaways:

Digitization and interoperability are rendering paper-based and isolated systems obsolete.
AI and automation are replacing manual scheduling, documentation, and analysis processes.
Physical media for data storage and transfer is giving way to cloud-based solutions.
Integrated communication platforms are making standalone devices like pagers redundant.
Remote monitoring and telehealth are reducing reliance on traditional, facility-based tools.

The pace of change in healthcare technology is accelerating dramatically. What seemed cutting-edge just a few years ago can quickly become cumbersome or inefficient compared to newer innovations. As we hurtle towards 2030, driven by digitization, artificial intelligence, enhanced connectivity, and a push towards patient-centered, value-based care, certain familiar technologies are inevitably heading toward obsolescence.

In this article, I'm identifying ten technologies or methods currently used in healthcare that I predict will vanish or become niche relics by the decade's end. This isn't just speculation; it's based on observing powerful trends and the clear advantages their replacements offer. Let's explore what's on the way out and why.

1. Paper Medical Records

This one feels almost too obvious, yet paper persists in pockets. However, the wholesale shift to Electronic Health Records (EHRs) is unstoppable. Paper records are inefficient, prone to loss or damage, difficult to share quickly, impossible to analyze computationally, and hinder coordinated care. EHRs provide instant access, legibility, remote accessibility, integrated decision support, and the foundation for data analytics. By 2030, relying primarily on paper records will be virtually unthinkable in most developed healthcare settings. The sheer inefficiency and lack of connectivity make paper a dinosaur.

2. Fax Machines

Ah, the trusty fax machine – a bizarrely resilient relic. Despite its security vulnerabilities and inefficiency (printing, scanning, manual routing), it lingers due to established workflows and legal precedents in some areas. However, secure digital messaging platforms integrated directly into EHRs, encrypted email, and dedicated healthcare communication apps are vastly superior. They offer better security, audit trails, faster transmission, and direct integration into patient records. The inefficiency and security risks of faxing are becoming too significant to ignore.

3. Physical X-Ray Films & View Boxes

The days of doctors holding large films up to brightly lit view boxes are numbered. Digital Radiography (DR) and Picture Archiving and Communication Systems (PACS) have revolutionized medical imaging. Digital images offer superior quality, easy storage, instant sharing across networks, reduced radiation exposure in some cases, and the ability to apply AI-powered analysis tools. Physical films are bulky, degrade over time, require chemical processing, and are incredibly difficult to share efficiently.

4. CDs/DVDs for Medical Images/Data Transfer

Burning patient scans onto a CD or DVD to be physically carried or mailed is rapidly becoming archaic. These discs are easily lost and damaged, can be incompatible with receiving systems, and represent a significant security risk (unencrypted PHI). Secure, cloud-based image-sharing portals and interoperable health information exchanges (HIEs) allow for the instant, encrypted transfer of large imaging files directly between providers and institutions. It's faster, more secure, and vastly more convenient.

5. Standalone Pagers

The simple pager, once a staple of medical communication, is being replaced by more functional and integrated tools. Secure messaging apps on hospital-provided or personal smartphones offer two-way communication, message confirmation, prioritization, group messaging, and integration with scheduling and EHR systems. While some arguments for pagers' reliability in poor-signal areas exist, advancing cellular and Wi-Fi infrastructure, combined with the richer functionality of apps, makes the dedicated, one-way pager increasingly obsolete for clinical communication.

6. Manual, Phone-Based Appointment Scheduling

The endless phone tag game between patients and scheduling staff, relying on manual calendar checks, is incredibly inefficient. Online patient portals, integrated scheduling software, and increasingly AI-powered scheduling bots are taking over. These systems allow patients to see real-time availability, book appointments 24/7, receive automated reminders, and manage cancellations online, freeing up staff time and reducing scheduling errors.

7. Standalone Data Entry Terminals

Dedicated computer terminals used only for inputting specific data points (like vital signs or lab results) separate from the main clinical workflow are fading. Modern EHRs and integrated systems utilize bedside devices, mobile apps (tablets, smartphones), and direct device integration (e.g., vital sign monitors automatically sending data to the EHR). This reduces redundant data entry, minimizes transcription errors, and ensures information is available in real time within the patient's comprehensive record.

8. Bulky, Single-Function Holter Monitors

Traditional Holter monitors for ambulatory ECG recording often involve a relatively bulky recording device with multiple wired leads attached to the patient for 24-48 hours. Newer alternatives include significantly smaller, multi-day wearable patches that are wire-free, waterproof, and offer greater patient comfort and compliance. Furthermore, integrated smartwatch ECG features, while not direct replacements for diagnostic Holters yet, signify the trend towards continuous, less obtrusive cardiac monitoring. The inconvenience and limited duration of old-style Holters make them ripe for replacement.

9. Handwritten Prescriptions

The handwritten prescription pad is disappearing except in very specific emergency situations or system downtimes. Electronic prescribing (e-prescribing) systems integrated with EHRs are the standard. E-prescribing improves patient safety (eliminating illegibility errors), allows for automated checks for drug interactions and allergies, streamlines pharmacy workflows, and provides better tracking and record-keeping. Regulatory pushes and safety benefits make its dominance inevitable.

10. Physical Medical Reference Libraries/Books

The sight of shelves groaning under the weight of heavy medical textbooks and journals in clinics or hospital libraries is becoming rare. Digital knowledge bases (like UpToDate, PubMed), online journals, specialized medical apps, and AI-powered clinical decision support tools offer instant access to the latest research, guidelines, and drug information directly at the point of care via computers or mobile devices. Digital resources are far easier to update, search, and integrate into clinical workflows than cumbersome physical texts.

Overarching Trends Driving Obsolescence

The demise of these technologies isn't random; powerful, intersecting trends drive it:

Digitization: Moving from analog/paper to digital formats.
Connectivity & Interoperability: Ensuring systems can talk to each other.
Automation & AI: Using software to perform tasks previously done manually.
Miniaturization & Mobility: Making devices smaller, wearable, and usable anywhere.
Cloud Computing: Centralizing data storage and access.
Patient Empowerment: Giving patients more control via portals and apps.

Summary

By 2030, the healthcare landscape will look significantly different, streamlined by digital tools and intelligent systems. We can expect the near-complete disappearance of paper records, fax machines, physical imaging films, standalone pagers, and manual scheduling from mainstream practice. Bulky monitors, handwritten prescriptions, siloed data entry, physical media transfer, and reliance on physical reference books will also become relics of a bygone era, replaced by integrated, efficient, secure, and often AI-enhanced digital alternatives.

Final Thought

Predicting the demise of familiar technologies can feel unsettling, but it’s fundamentally about progress. Each technology fading from this list is being replaced by something that promises better efficiency, improved patient safety, enhanced data accessibility, or a more integrated care experience. Resisting these changes is futile; the key is understanding the trajectory, adapting proactively, and focusing on how the new tools can help us achieve the ultimate goal: better health outcomes for everyone. The future isn’t about the specific gadget but the improved care processes they enable.

Frequently Asked Questions

Won't some of these technologies persist in under-resourced areas?
Yes, adoption rates vary significantly. While these technologies might vanish from mainstream use in well-resourced settings by 2030, some may linger longer in areas with limited funding or infrastructure (like basic paper records or fax for specific legal needs). However, the trend towards obsolescence remains clear globally.

Are there security risks with replacing things like pagers with smartphones?
Absolutely. Replacing older tech requires robust security measures for the new systems. Secure, encrypted messaging apps, strong authentication, mobile device management (MDM) policies, and user training are essential to mitigate the risks of using multi-functional devices like smartphones for clinical communication and ensure HIPAA compliance (or equivalent regulations).

What about the reliability of older tech like fax or pagers in emergencies?
While pagers had perceived reliability advantages due to simpler networks, modern communication systems often have built-in redundancies and work over multiple networks (cellular, Wi-Fi). Secure apps provide delivery confirmation, which pagers lack. Fax reliability is frequently overstated, given busy signals, paper jams, and confirmation issues. The key is robust implementation of the new systems, not clinging to inherently less functional old ones.

Isn't AI replacing doctors' judgment along with these older tools?
The goal of current AI in healthcare is primarily augmentation, not replacement. AI excels at analyzing vast datasets (like images or records) to detect patterns, flag risks humans might miss, or automate routine tasks. It acts as a powerful decision-support tool, aiming to free up clinicians to focus on complex reasoning, patient interaction, and empathy—areas where the human element remains irreplaceable.

Q5: How can healthcare professionals prepare for these technology shifts?
Embrace lifelong learning and digital literacy. Be open to adopting new workflows enabled by EHRs, telehealth platforms, and AI tools. Participate in training, provide feedback on new systems, and focus on the patient care benefits these technologies unlock rather than just the tool itself. Adaptability and a focus on core clinical skills remain paramount.

About Dr. David L. Priede, MIS, PhD

As a healthcare professional and neuroscientist at the BioLife Health Research Center, I drive progress and promote innovation. With a multifaceted background encompassing experiences in science, technology, healthcare, and education, I’ve consistently sought to challenge conventional boundaries and pioneer transformative solutions that address pressing challenges. Follow me on Linkedin.

Founder and Director of Biolife Health Center and a member of the American Medical Association, National Association for Healthcare Quality, Society for Neuroscience, and the American Brain Foundation.